Sunday, March 16, 2003

The Big Chill, by Michael Brush
Global warming may cause the Gulf Stream to stop streaming. If this happened, much of Europe and the Northeast US would see much colder weather. Brush sees this as bullish for heating oil and gas companies, and those offering tours to warmer climates, bad for insurance firms, among other effects. It would be a startling development, yet it does sound plausible. Is the current cold winter in these areas an omen?

Monday, March 10, 2003

Economist Paul Krugman says interest rates are going up, maybe not in the next few months, but as a consequence of Bush's big deficits. It sounds, like in the 70s, stagflation may be upon us. The 70s were bad for stocks and bonds, but good for money market funds, real estate and precious metals, as I recall.

Tuesday, March 04, 2003

Warren Buffet's annual letter summarized in Fortune, full letter at Berkshire Hathaway.
Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us

And it's true that stocks are still overpriced by historical standards. Price-earnings ratios need to get down to 15 or so to match the historical average. Buffet would prefer even lower ones.